TOM CONNELL, HOST: Let's go to our panel. Assistant Minister to the Prime Minister Patrick Gorman, and former Liberal MP Jason Falinski. Start with you, Pat. So, we're told our living standards will improve, wages as well, and the Budget will be okay, but that's if we get productivity going four times its current rate. So, if we miss that, we're going to be mired in debt, aren't we?
PATRICK GORMAN, ASSISTANT MINISTER TO THE PRIME MINISTER: Well, it does outline what we see is the likely scenario heading over the next 40 years. That means a bigger country with more opportunities, but also a range of challenges. The Intergenerational Report very clearly outlines the opportunities and challenges of the rollout of artificial intelligence and what that will mean for our productivity. And it notes very clearly that that's essential for getting productivity up in this nation, which is something we've been working on since we came to office. I want to remind your viewers that there's a $10 billion red tape reduction package that came out of the Productivity Roundtable that we held last year. And then I'd also point your viewers to other parts of the Intergenerational Report which clearly outline some of the big challenges we do have. We have an ageing population – significant increase in people over the age of 85. We have the challenges when it comes to – the Treasurer was pretty blunt about this – what's happening when it comes to fragmentation in the global order. So, you say it's rosy, Tom, I'd say it's realistic. And we're being honest with the Australian people, which is what you'd expect.
CONNELL: Wasn't the Productivity Roundtable renamed Economic Roundtable when you realised productivity wasn't really improving?
GORMAN: Tom, I think you knew exactly the roundtable I was talking about, and I think all your viewers did as well.
CONNELL: But it was renamed, wasn't it, to the Economic Roundtable?
GORMAN: Economic Roundtable – it will be a shock to you, Tom, but it won't be a shock to your viewers – productivity is a big part of economic reform. That is why it's been part of every single Budget we've handed down, and if you look at the most recent Budget, that $3.8 billion of additional tax relief for small businesses and startups, we’ll continue to do the things that are necessary to make sure we lift productivity in this country. But as the Intergenerational Report outlines, it's lots of small pieces of work. It is not big things, as we had in the 80s and 90s. That is just the reality of it.
CONNELL: And a big part of it – yeah okay. Let me get to Jason. Jason, A big part of this basically says AI will help us unleash productivity. You're quite into the AI space. Do you think this is realistic?
JASON FALINKSI, FORMER LIBERAL MP: No, Tom, I don't. I think that the use of AI, which has now become the favourite excuse of this government for their, ‘how we’re going to get out of the problems that we caused’, does not fix a problem. In fact, AI, like all technology, can actually make a bad problem worse because it can accelerate it. And I just don't think that this government is serious and ever has been serious about improving Australians’ productivity and therefore their real wages because it actually means that they have to take on a whole bunch of their favourite donors and they will never do that because this is why we're in the problem we're in.
CONNELL: But does AI have the capability to do that? You say it can make bad problems worse. Presumably that's not what it's going to do overall if it's done well.
FALINSKI: Technology, like any technology can make a good problem – or can make something good even better. But in reality, AI applied to a system that is broken just makes it broken faster. Look, I just think AI has become the favourite word or concept to throw around that it's causing all our problems and equally it's going to solve all our problems at the same time. The fact of the matter is, it is just a tool, and it can be used for good and it can be used for badness as, Get Smart might say. But the fact is it's not going to solve the problem that has been created by overregulation, over-taxation and the IR club taking over again.
CONNELL: Let me ask about immigration to you, Pat, and working holiday makers because this has been highlighted by quite a few business groups that this new plan to – at the moment you have 31,000 people who are backpackers basically go to the regions, do it for six months and they therefore get a third year. Your plan is to only have 5,000 visas and you get that by still doing the six months, but entering a ballot. So, one in six chance? Are people really going to sign up to six months in the bush maybe picking crops, whatever it be, for that one in six chance?
GORMAN: It is a working holiday – that says what it does on the tin, Tom. That is that you come here for a holiday where you work. We expect that people work in the sorts of jobs where we have seasonal labour demand. And then we will have a more orderly system that Australia has had in the past for where people are staying on for a longer period of time. We have to make tough decisions and the Minister's been really open about this when it comes to making sure that we get to those net overseas migration targets that we've been trying to get to as a nation for a period of time, we're determined to meet those targets and this is one of the measures. It is not the only measure –
CONNELL: But some will – some won't do that, will they? You'll have a drop off, surely, on the people doing that six months, if you go from 100 per cent, get that visa, to one in six?
GORMAN: There is a range of different ways we get labour into the regions. The other thing that the Minister said in his Press Conference – Club address, was that we would have priority processing for those who are applying to come and work in agriculture. That was very clearly put up front. So, there are a range of different ways to get skills into the regions, but also, to make sure that we're helping Australians get jobs in the regions. So, that's why we've got our Free TAFE program. That is why we've got a range of the programs that we run through employment services to help people into bits of the labour market where there are shortages. And we'll continue to do that.
CONNELL: Now, Jason, I know your daughter's been hard working, listens to the teacher at school. Such a good father figure.
FALINSKI: Just like all our children. Just like all our children.
CONNELL: Yeah. Oh, God, not mine. But we've got a problem with school discipline. I was fascinated to read over the weekend, the Coalition talking about a root and branch review. One of the solutions, they say, hire more military veterans. Now, we're all about getting pathways for veterans back into the economy and jobs. But is that really going to fix school discipline?
FALINSKI: Look, I think it's one solution, but no, it wouldn't be the main way of fixing school discipline. Look, Tom, we have a huge problem in our education system. If you want to know why we can't have nice things, why productivity continues to fail, it's because we have an education and skills system that is designed to benefit the producers of education and skills education rather than the people who are consuming it, i.e. students. So, despite the record investment, as Pat would say, or spending, as I would say – and by the way, Pat, it's not free TAFE, someone's paying for it – where education and skill standards are going backwards at a rapid rate in Australia. In fact, Australia is one of the few nations in the world where, when you increase spending, education gets worse. It has an inverse relationship to how much money and how many resources you're spending on it. So, yeah, look, we need new thinking in this area. That's definitely true.
CONNELL: I won't delve into class sizes. Then we'll really be going into some familiar terrain. Pat, but let me ask you about this – the cost of fuel is absolutely soaring, up to sort of $2.45, I've seen around Canberra. The Coalition says any time it goes above $100 a barrel, that's when they'd cut the excise. Is that a policy you're looking at, at all?
GORMAN: Look, we're not looking at adopting the Coalition's approach of these uncosted policies that have huge risk for Commonwealth finances when we're in the middle of conflict between the United States and Iran. We just saw the package as well, before this segment, Tom, about the ongoing costs and challenges of the war between Russia and Ukraine. We are in a time of great global conflict. We need to be measured in our response. But I will also say, and I’ve said on this program before –
CONNELL: But you cut the excise and that just went on to debt, didn't it? That added to our debt when you cut the excise.
GORMAN: I will say that I've learnt from other challenges, and we've seen during the COVID pandemic that it was poor policy when the previous Liberal-National government continued to rule out everything and then had to backtrack at a rate of knots. We will continue to look at what is the best way we can responsibly support Australian households who are doing it tough. But we are not going to adopt a –
CONNELL: So, what does that mean, maybe again on fuel excise?
GORMAN: Well, we'll look at the things we can do to support Australian households. The thing we've got rolling out at the moment are our tax cuts, that did start on the 1st of July. Consistent financial support for households. We have got more tax cuts that roll through in next financial year or the end of this financial year, to be more accurate. We will continue to do that, but this is a global conflict that is causing these fuel price spikes. They are really hurting people in my community. It was $2.29 on my drive in this morning. It is not good news, but we'll have to take the responsible path to respond to these global shocks.
CONNELL: Was that a tactical sneeze, Jason? A disbelieving one, or have we not dusted the studio again?
FALINSKI: I just don't understand why Pat won't invest in reducing fuel prices. But anyway, look, I think Tom, that, you know, Pat, also has to be a bit honest here. We have allowed, under both governments, 13 refineries to close down, I think is the number, that was due to tax, environmental, industrial relations policies and the behaviour of class action lawyers.
GORMAN: And in the case of the one in Western Australia, it was due to Angus Taylor, who was the energy minister at the time. If we're going to start doing the point scoring, Jason.
FALINSKI: Well, but I tried to do the opposite just then, Pat. But anyway, okay, Angus Taylor also let one close down too. So, the long and the short of it is, though, in the long term, I think Pat would have the better numbers on this. But more than half the cars sold in Australia last year were EVs. That is a trend that is accelerating in this country as it is around the world. So, we do need to actually seriously look at fuel excise and the role that it plays in our tax system and how we're going to make sure that it is future-proofed as more, and more people buy electric vehicles.
CONNELL: That's true. The road user charge, apparently the time had come, but it wasn't quite the last Budget. I think I've learned from this panel. I like that line. I'm just going to tell my wife that I have to – we have – the household needs to invest in various things when I need to, you know, get a weekend away. So, there's my attempt. I'll tell you how it goes. All right, Patrick, Jason, thank you.